Four Possible Scenarios for February 14th 2012
Posted on 23 January 2012 by Suhail
Things are heating up. Tensions are rising, and the violent protests are increasing, which are resulting – if some of the web videos out there are to be believed – in ever more severe crackdowns. I don’t want to sound too judgemental, but the impression one gets is that the impunity mentioned in the BICI report is still going on.
The opposition is growing ever more restless, and Sheik Isa Qassim seems to be losing it. In his last sermon he said something to the effect of “if these shameless mercenaries come in to your villages again, and are abusive to your families – crush them! CRUSH THEM! CRUSH THEM!”
This is not good.
Some youths rioting that I witnessed over the weekend in Sar. They blocked off the road, and I did not stay long enough for riot police to appear
Personally, I think it’s only a matter of time until Al-Wefaq stop calling for a constitutional monarchy, and start calling for open revolt. Their patience is running out, and the impression one gets is that they are inches away from insulting the king – though they don’t refrain from severely criticising him.
And as the anti-government temper is rising, so is the pro-government’s. People are calling to punish “the terrorists”, and severely criticising the government for their perceived lack of action. Few are in the mood for reconciliation. It’s as if the BICI report never happened.
That’s not to say that the government isn’t doing a lot of work behind the scenes, it is. It is working hard on implementing every single Basyouni recommendation, but the overall spirit of reconciliation seems to be missing. I’ve heard several people predicting civil war – heaven forbid.
You can bet your bottom dollar that the underground Feb 14th guys are planning something big for February 14th 2012. So what’s likely to happen? Here are some possible scenarios:
1) All hell breaks lose, and we have another tragic repeat of 2011, where there is lawlessness and chaos in the streets. I’d say this has a 20% likelihood of happening.
2) The protestors try something big, but the security forces beat them to the punch and quench the attempted rebellion. I give this scenario a 50% likelihood.
3) Another normal day, and business as usual – 20% likelihood.
4) The government announces something really big which will calm everyone down and start real reconciliation (we’ve been hearing rumours of this since summer last year) – 10% likelihood.
Though I pray for Number Four, I have my doubts.
I hope I’m wrong.
Talk soon.
Look at the world – really, there are much, much Priority issues that needs to be revolted – I did say, for example Gaza, has people revolting naturally – since there really are some obvious valid underlying issues there and similarily some corrupt countries having its people take all means to ouster their corrupt officials to see some realtime development in action.
I guess once all this wraps up around here – the Education/Trainings sector has to be re-reviewed and fine-tuned to enable effective skilled employment to get the young people off the streets and into building this nation to its glory!
An excellent unbiased opinion. Something deeply refreshing to see in Bahrain. I share your fears and optimism. Let’s hope that everyone keeps a calm head and there are no catalyst events to cause violence.
@TheTomCarter
Although I wish No. 3 to be the case, but unfortunately we haven’t had a normal day since Feb 14 2011. I am optimistic by nature, but not this time. I speculate that Scenario No. 2 is possible to happen. God protect Bahrain
Define “something big” from the gov’t that you want to hear.. ?
Dude they are already insulting the king, much to the agitation of his supporters and honestly it is uncalled for. This man has given them so much leeway to manouvre and come back to the table but yet they still refuse.
The fact is that Al Wefaq simply cannot reel in the yobs and thugs anymore. If they even ask for that they risk losing support and disintegrating. Therefore they issue statements from time to time backing the Feb 14th Movement in a more pacifist approach, walking a tight rope between risking all out government and opposition wrath. I think its high time we had a clean up job and went for option 2. The demonstrators are simply teenaged yobs with nothing better to do then go out pillaging and plundering on weekends. Enough of this nonsense. If we opt for number 2 Wefaq and Co will automatically be forced to come to the table. They have no reason not to now especially since His Majesty has addressed some of their chief constitutional gripes.
I think his quote was, “Crush anyone you find attacking a believing women”, based on a rumor that riot policem attacked a place of worship restricted to women only. If the Government wanted peace they would have refuted the rumor and if the opposition wanted peace they would have investigated the rumor.
To be honest, I wouldn’t want police men around the place I live either, these men are unpredictable and what I don’t understand, I fear the most. The rioters, I could understand their incentives. Regardless, let them burn each other up and if found myself caught in the middle of the furnace, I’ll do some Crushing myself.
Well , on March 2011 shaik A Latif al Mahmoud , a Sunni leader, had said exactly what sheik Isa kasim , shittie leader,said on Friday….About defending your family and partically women. I see no difference between the two while media in Bahrain Doesn’t like Those people to speak up ! While some are saying many “not good” things in mosques
Like hanging execution ropes in AlFateh mosque! This is “not good” too !
I think any one can google many videos about riot police insulting women in Bahrain ….
The problem in Bahrain that law can’t be applied without insulting !! This become a systematic habit as BICI report claimed
Continueing treating people in unhumatiy and insulting way will not stop this people! People will do anything for their degnity, that they felt it was completely lost during last 10 months !
Whats holding back the gov from option four “give in something big” say, the resignation of a certain long-serving official, in order to avoid option one?
As long as there is a perceived lack of leadership at the top, do your best to prepare for the worst.
Oops I forget to mention that your article is good and you are a respective person Suhail, we need a little bit more of you in Bahrain
And another thing, how did you allot the percentage likelihood? What do you know that led you to that breakdown? (namely option 2 and option 4)
Gov must restore order, must stop with this pardons. Pardons do not help in the “reconciliation” process, they must see them as Hezbollah thugs, they have to jail or deport some people including Isa Qassim, he cannot be left alone after his stupid fatwa on Friday. Who the hell does he think he is?
God save us from those terrorists..
Thanks all for your feedback, as always it is much appreciated, regardless of which side of the fence you’re on. A couple of points:
- BRN, I guess “something big” is a compromise of some sort. But I fully acknowledge that all sides need to make sacrifices.
- Mohammed, in my humble opinion, more force and cracking down will only back fire. It was tried and had the opposite effect, it did not humble the protesters, it galvanized them. Something else needs to be tried, but you make some valid points.
- Sara, thank you
- Realist, the weighting is purely my own, based on my estimation of things.
-BRAN, God save Bahrain from all those who wish to do it harm.
Thanks again all for your comments, much obliged.
As much as I try to stay positive, we all realistically know that Bahrain has reached a point where reconciliation between its people seems impossible. For one every individual is pressured to label them self as either “pro-government” or “protestor”, if you don’t you would be considered a traitor and what not. Those who claim that they love this country and they are doing whatever it they are doing to ensure a bright future for this country keep blaming and criticizing their opposition and are doing nothing to restore Bahrain back to normal. We will not see an end to this till leading figures from both ends come out in a joint statement condemning the violence on the street. The government will need to move faster and stop working behind the scenes; people need to see the progress they are making. Religious figure should do their best to stop all sorts of violence and restore the peace and love the Muslim religion expects from its followers. Opposition leaders will have to stop acting like children and start cooperating with the government. Out main priority as citizens of Bahrain is to ensure that we all love one another and are working for the same cause. Cheesy?! Yes, but true. There is too much hate between the people right now and it will take years to heal, so let us start focusing on that.
I think I should start planning a holiday! Hmmm… I’ve never been to the Bahamas! Sounds like a good idea plus Bahrain – Bahamas, same same! Just need to reshuffle and add a few letters here and there
“Everything will be alright. ” Insha Allah…..Allah is great.
The only party that has the actual power to do something to change the situation is the Royal Family. The crisis isn’t something merely engineered by Al-Wefaq, the people who are upset and protesting are not merely pawns following orders. The people protesting have their own grievances and are not going to go way until real change happens. The few that are troublemakers will be marginalized if real change happens. If the King announced today that he was granting parliament full legislative authority and the power to elect a prime minister, it would diffuse the situation. The primary issue has always been about the weakness of parliament and the fact that the prime minister is un-elected and has been around for decades. This does not mean that the King would have to get rid of his uncle, instead his uncle could still serve in some capacity – perhaps it could be similar to the French system where parliament and the prime minister deal with the Domestic arena, whereas the President deals with the foreign affairs and policy. The Royal Family would not have to go anywhere. They would remain the Royal Family and Foreign Policy would be directed by the Royal Family. This would appease all sides or at least large segments of both sides that reconciliation would be possible. This would also be reassuring to the GCC and the U.S.
The day we stop talking about a “royal family” and “His Majesty” is the day we start moving towards a better Bahrain. Equality means that a destitute homeless man in Sitra is equal to a pompous ass member of the Alkhalifa family with the one and only differentiator between them being merit. Look at members of said family in the media and you continue to see their pompous belief that they are God’s chosen people and that they somehow own Bahrain and its people. Same story elsewhere in the gulf. “Saudi Arabia” went the extra mile and decided to attribute its people to itself, by calling them “Saudis”. Imagine that.
There is no such thing as royal, not in human terms nor in Islamic ones. And yet those who continue to call the protestors heretics, safawis, fire-worshippers and agents of Iran continue to call Hamad titles that should only ever be given to God.
I guess it was Number Two after all.
Here’s hoping the current flirtations between the opposition and the Royal Court result in real dialogue, and to national healing and reconciliation.